Achieving Climate Neutrality in Hungary by 2050: Application of the Pathways Explorer 2050 Model

Robert Santa; Monika Rajcsanyi-Molnar; Istvan Andras

doi:10.31181/dmame8220251568

Authors

Robert Santa Institute of Engineering, University of Dunaujvaros, Dunaujvaros, Hungary,
Monika Rajcsanyi-Molnar Institute of Social Sciences, University of Dunaujvaros, Dunaujvaros, Hungary
Istvan Andras Institute of Social Sciences, University of Dunaujvaros, Dunaujvaros, Hungary

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.31181/dmame8220251568

Keywords:

Hungary; Decision; 2050; Decarbonization; Climate Pathway; Sustainable Operations

Abstract

This research utilises the Climate 2050 Pathways Explorer (PE) model, which incorporates Hungary’s social and economic context, to explore pathways for achieving climate neutrality by 2050. The study integrates historical data, sectoral reports, and strategies outlined by the Hungarian government, employing a freely accessible online simulation model. The PE model provides an economy-wide analysis, examining interactions across nearly one hundred adjustable parameters. Dynamic and static scenarios are compared to assess the extent and nature of emissions reductions across sectors such as energy, transportation, construction, food, agriculture, forestry, industry, and waste management, in response to various policy interventions. The findings indicate that Hungary’s current National Energy and Climate Plan (NECP) is insufficient to achieve the 2050 climate neutrality target. Alternative scenarios are proposed, ranging from projections based on historical trends to strategies necessitating transformative changes, innovation, and significant investment. The study underscores the importance of improving energy efficiency, expanding renewable energy sources, reducing dependence on fossil fuels, and decarbonising critical sectors such as transportation and agriculture through technological advancements and policy measures. The analysis highlights the necessity of adopting advanced technologies over an extended timeframe and implementing long-term policies supported by comprehensive investment programmes. These measures are essential for enabling Hungary to align with global efforts to combat climate change and transition to a low-carbon economy.

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

References

[1] European Commission. A Clean Planet for All: A European strategic long-term vision for a prosperous, modern, competitive and climate-neutral economy. 2018; Available from: https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=CELEX%3A52018DC0773

[2] European Commission. Delivering the European Green Deal. 2021; Available from: https://commission.europa.eu/strategy-and-policy/priorities-2019-2024/european-green-deal/delivering-european-green-deal_en

[3] IPCC. (2023). Climate Change 2023 – Synthesis Report. Summary for Policymakers. https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/syr/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_SYR_SPM.pdf

[4] Creutzig, F., et al. (2016). Beyond technology: demand-side solutions for climate change mitigation. Annual Review of Environment and Resources, 41(1), 173-198. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-environ-110615-085428

[5] Van den Berg, N.J., et al. (2019). Improved modelling of lifestyle changes in Integrated Assessment Models: Cross-disciplinary insights from methodologies and theories. Energy Strategy Reviews, 26, 100420. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.esr.2019.100420

[6] International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA). (2019). Renewable Energy Statistics 2019. https://www.irena.org/publications/2019/Jul/Renewable-energy-statistics-2019

[7] International Energy Agency (IEA). (2019). The Future of Hydrogen: Seizing today’s opportunities. https://www.iea.org/reports/the-future-of-hydrogen

[8] European Commission. 2030 Climate Target Plan. 2020; Available from: https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/api/files/attachment/866236/EU%20Climate%20Target%20Plan%202030%20Building%20a%20modern,%20sustainable%20and%20resilient%20Europe.pdf

[9] European Commission. The European Green Deal. 2019; Available from: https://ec.europa.eu/clima/eu-action/european-green-deal_en.

[10] International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA). (2020). Renewable Energy Prospects for Central and South-Eastern Europe (CESEC). https://www.irena.org/Publications/2020/Oct/Renewable-Energy-Prospects-for-Central-and-South-Eastern-Europe-Energy-Connectivity-CESEC

[11] International Energy Agency (IEA). (2022). Hungary 2022: Energy Policy Review. https://www.iea.org/reports/hungary-2022

[12] Haszpra, L., Atmospheric greenhouse gases: the Hungarian perspective. 2010: Springer Science & Business Media. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-90-481-9950-1

[13] Talamon, A., et al. (2019). Global solar energy trends and potential of building sector in Hungary. Interdisciplinary Description of Complex Systems: INDECS, 17(1-A), 51-57. https://doi.org/10.7906/indecs.17.1.7

[14] International Energy Agency (IEA). (2020). Energy Technology Perspectives 2020. https://www.iea.org/reports/energy-technology-perspectives-2020

[15] Monitor, E. (2020). A Renovation Wave for Europe - greening our buildings, creating jobs, improving lives. https://www.eumonitor.eu/9353000/1/j9vvik7m1c3gyxp/vlcxt8sqp3zo

[16] McKinsey & Company. (2022). Carbon-neutral Hungary. https://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/sustainability/our-insights/carbon-neutral-hungary

[17] Fogarassy, C. and A. Kovacs. (2016). The cost-benefit relations of the future environmental related development strategies in the Hungarian energy sector. YBL Journal of Built Environment, 4(1), 33-48, jbe-2016-0004. https://doi.org/10.1515/jbe-2016-0004

[18] Szlavik, J. and M. Csete. (2012). Climate and energy policy in Hungary. Energies, 5(2), 494-517. https://doi.org/10.3390/en5020494

[19] Török, Á. (2009). Greenhouse gas emission of Hungarian transport sector. Periodica Polytechnica Transportation Engineering, 37(1-2), 65-69. https://doi.org/10.3311/pp.tr.2009-1-2.11

[20] Titov, A., et al. (2021). Acceptance and potential of renewable energy sources based on biomass in rural areas of Hungary. Sustainability, 13(4), 2294. https://doi.org/10.3390/su13042294

[21] European Environment Agency (EEA). (2020). The European environment — state and outlook 2020: knowledge for transition to a sustainable Europe. https://www.eea.europa.eu/soer-2020

[22] Szlávik, J., et al. (2000). Carbon mitigation in Hungary: challenges for a sustainable national energy policy. Periodica Polytechnica Social and Management Sciences, 8(2), 103-120. https://pp.bme.hu/so/article/view/1744

[23] Koczóh, L.A. (2024). Proposal package to achieve the 2030 climate goals. https://www.greenpolicycenter.com/2024/03/21/a-mirror-projekt-kereteben-keszult-elemzesek-es-javaslatcsomagok-gyujtemenye/

[24] Rockström, J., et al. (2017). A roadmap for rapid decarbonization. Science, 355(6331), 1269-1271. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aah3443

[25] Steffen, W., et al. (2015). Planetary boundaries: Guiding human development on a changing planet. Science, 347(6223), 1259855. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1259855

[26] Grubler, A., et al. (2018). A low energy demand scenario for meeting the 1.5 C target and sustainable development goals without negative emission technologies. Nature energy, 3(6), 515-527. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41560-018-0172-6

[27] Branger, F. and P. Quirion. (2014). Would border carbon adjustments prevent carbon leakage and heavy industry competitiveness losses? Insights from a meta-analysis of recent economic studies. Ecological Economics, 99, 29-39. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2013.12.010

[28] Tan, X., et al. (2018). Assessment of carbon leakage by channels: An approach combining CGE model and decomposition analysis. Energy Economics, 74, 535-545. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2018.07.003

[29] Nordhaus, W. (2015). Climate clubs: Overcoming free-riding in international climate policy. American Economic Review, 105(4), 1339-1370. https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.15000001

[30] Rogelj, J., et al. (2016). Paris Agreement climate proposals need a boost to keep warming well below 2 C. Nature, 534(7609), 631-639. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature18307

[31] European Commission. (2021). Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism. Available from: https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=celex:52021PC0564

[32] Weyant, J. (2017). Some contributions of integrated assessment models of global climate change. Review of Environmental Economics and Policy. https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/full/10.1093/reep/rew018

[33] Peng, W., et al. (2021). Climate policy models need to get real about people—here’s how. Nature, 594(7862), 174-176. https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-01500-2

[34] Cambridge Econometrics. E3ME: Our Global Macro-econometric Model. 2019; Available from: https://www.camecon.com/how/e3me-model/

[35] Luderer, G., et al. (2019). Environmental co-benefits and adverse side-effects of alternative power sector decarbonization strategies. Nature communications, 10(1), 5229. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-13067-8

[36] Ürge-Vorsatz, D., et al. (2018). Locking in positive climate responses in cities. Nature Climate Change, 8(3), 174-177. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0100-6

[37] Clora, F. and W. Yu. (2022). GHG emissions, trade balance, and carbon leakage: Insights from modeling thirty-one European decarbonization pathways towards 2050. Energy Economics, 113, 106240. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2022.106240

[38] Pestiaux, J., et al. (2019). Introduction to the eucalc model cross-sectoral model description and documentation. European Commission: Brussels, Belgium. https://www.european-calculator.eu/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/EUCalc_Cross-Sectoral_description_September2019.pdf

[39] Costa, L., et al. (2021). The decarbonisation of Europe powered by lifestyle changes. Environmental Research Letters, 16(4), 044057. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abe890

[40] Strapasson, A., et al. (2020). Modelling carbon mitigation pathways by 2050: Insights from the Global Calculator. Energy Strategy Reviews, 29, 100494. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.esr.2020.100494

[41] Spataru, C., et al. (2015). Long-term scenarios for reaching climate targets and energy security in UK. Sustainable cities and Society, 17, 95-109. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scs.2015.03.010

[42] Clora, F., et al. (2021). Impacts of supply-side climate change mitigation practices and trade policy regimes under dietary transition: the case of European agriculture. Environmental Research Letters, 16(12), 124048. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac39bd

[43] International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA). (2020). Innovation outlook: Thermal energy storage. https://www.irena.org/publications/2020/Nov/Innovation-outlook-Thermal-energy-storage

[44] Ellen Macarthur Foundation. Completing the picture: How the circular economy tackles climate change. 2021; Available from: https://www.ellenmacarthurfoundation.org/completing-the-picture.

[45] FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization). (2021). Climate-Smart Agriculture. https://www.fao.org/climate-smart-agriculture-sourcebook/concept/module-a1-introducing-csa/a1-overview/en/?type=111

[46] Energinet. Strategy: Winds of Change. 2021; Available from: https://en.energinet.dk/media/araf0siy/en-strategy-winds-of-change-print.pdf.

[47] OECD. (2012). OECD Environmental Outlook to 2050: The Consequences of Inaction. https://www.oecd.org/en/publications/2012/03/oecd-environmental-outlook-to-2050_g1g14e69.html

[48] Bond, K. (2021). The Sky’s the Limit: Solar and wind energy potential is 100 times as much as global energy demand. https://carbontracker.org/reports/the-skys-the-limit-solar-wind/

[49] Eurostat. (2024). Renewables take the lead in power generation in 2023. https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/products-eurostat-news/w/ddn-20240627-1